6/2/2011
BIDU Stock Swan Dives Just as Cowan Forecast Days Earlier
Anyone following my 4/2/2011
advise (see below) to sell BIDU at 140 and buy back later has already made a
lot of money. As forecast, the stock trended higher into a "BULL TRAP" for a
few days until taking the Swan Dive down to 124 only 6 weeks after I sold at
139.25. I always sell into strength using market orders. As the chart below
shows, prices drop quickly from the top. My re-entry point is ~$15 below my
4/2/2011 sell price, or about 10% in 6 weeks.
4/2/2011
BIDU Stock - Black Swan Formation - The Swan Dive
My PWER trade on November 22, 2010 was again dead on accurate. That
bottom at 8 3/4 was followed by a fast advance beyond 12 for a profit of
~40% in a little over 2 months. Because I have received several emails
asking when to sell, I am outlining simple techniques not commonly used
that any trader can learn.
Several years ago I wrote about the
Black Swan Formation and successfully demonstrated its application
in real-time trading. That work is archived here.
The Black Swan is found in all markets and is shown below in BIDU. It
consists of 3 parts; a base-building smooth bottom, a quick
mark-up in prices (neck of the swan), distribution (head of the
swan). Geometrically, this is an unfolded ellipse. The extent and
duration of the Black Swan repeats. The BIDU chart shows the same price
and time movement June-July, 2010. Each of these swans divided the
entire move shown on this chart into 1/3. The Black Swan typically
dives after it forms.
Additionally, the upper trend line since
the May 2010 stock split has defined the trend. Prices are now near this
trend line. Using these simple techniques the trader would sell knowing
that the risk/reward ratio was too high, with stops placed above the
trend line. Although prices may follow that upper trend line a little
longer, the words of the famous American whiskey bootlegger of the
1920's, Joseph Kennedy, are apropos, "only a fool holds out for top
dollar".
For these reasons and others I liquidated
my entire BIDU position yesterday at 139.25. Some was purchased at 69.5
and the rest at 99.25, nearly doubling the earlier purchase in 9 months.
I may repurchase in the future.
11/22/2010
PWER Stock
Effective use of technical analysis
does not have to be complicated. When a stock is in an early growth phase
linear trends and support/resistance levels are much easier to identify.
Simple methods of analysis such as Elliott 5-3 patterns can still be used
even if you have more sophisticated methods. PWER stock is a good example of
this. The daily chart for the past year shows a 5 wave up, 3 wave down
pattern with support at the linear "A" and "C" levels. My buy-in on PWER has
been in the 8.75-9 level over the past few days.
10/31/2010
FSLR hits Cowan's 7/3/2010 price target of 150 and plunges, proving
Cowan's forecasting techniques work in both PRICE and TIME.
On 7/3/2010 when FSLR stock was trading at
120 Cowan forecast here (see below) that it would run up to 150. That
price target has been hit twice followed both times by 10%+ drops.
8/3/2010
NIKE!
(No, not the running shoes)
Nike is the mythological Greek goddess of
VICTORY. Legends say her name was yelled after the battle of Marathon
with the Persians. After running the 26.2 miles from the Marathon
battlefield to Athens, the runner yelled NIKE!, then collapsed and died.
One month ago at the 7/2/2010 bottom every
talking head on the airwaves was in full panic mode calling for a
"double dip" recession and much lower prices. (See chart below). The
CNBC Clueless Club cited the "death cross", as they called it, of the
50-day moving average crossing the 200-day. The rampant pessimism can be
seen by watching this CNBC video recorded on 7/2/2010,
www.cnbc.com//id/38058478.
While the CNBC Clueless Club was calling
for more selling, Cowan made his first BUY recommendation in 3 months,
giving FSLR stock as a good example. His accumulation price was 100-105,
and when made public on 7/3 FSLR was trading at 120. FSLR immediately
shot up to 140 three weeks later, for a quick profit of 16% from 120,
and 40% profit from 100 a month earlier! As is always the case, the
position was followed by trailing stops. This lets the market decide
when to close the position.
7/3/2010
FSLR stock - A textbook example of stock manipulation.
"Never play another man's game." That was the lesson my father taught me
when I was 11 years old and he took my life's savings of $12 by gambling
on the game of checkers. He knew he could not beat me at chess so he
talked me into gambling on a game I knew nothing about, checkers. After
a series of "double or nothing" losses, my $12 belonged to him (which he
kept) and his words "never play another man's game" belonged to me.
FSLR (shown below) is a good example of
smart money manipulating the public into "playing their game" by issuing
buy recommendations as they distribute their stock. FSLR had been in a
downtrend since 2007 until it was broken at $112 on high volume on March
26, 2010. The volume indicates that the smart money was buying, yet no
"buy recommendations" were issued at that time. A month later FSLR was
at 152 and 5 different brokerage firms issued "strong buy"
recommendations to the press. Volume spiked as they distributed to the
public the stock they bought a month earlier. Prices immediately tumbled
all the way back to the trend line at 100.
When you listen to "buy" or "sell"
recommendations you are playing another man's game, and you are certain
to lose. The charts never lie. All the manipulation is recorded in the
price and volume action for the sharp eye to discover.
I have been accumulating FSLR for the past
2 months whenever it drops down to the declining trend line, typically
in the 100-105 price range. Upside target is when it returns to the
October 2009 gap around 150.
3/5/2010
ANOTHER BULL'S EYE TO END ONE YEAR OF COWAN'S
DEAD-ON-ACCURATE PUBLIC MARKET CALLS MADE ON THIS WEBSITE!
"It's been exactly one year since I came
out of hibernation and made my first public market call in many years,
calling the bottom on this website. Since then, three other market calls
have been posted here within the past 3 months, all of which were
dead-on-accurate resulting in HUGE profits for those following the
trades. All calls were based on simple, easy to understand, applications
of cycles and Gann. All cycle dates were calculated by
CycleTimer. There was nothing complicated or time consuming about
it. A trained monkey could have done it. The real-time examples posted
here for the past year put to rest once and for all any questions of the
efficacy or difficulty of Cowan's techniques. Critics of Cowan's cycle
work are more making a statement about their own limited abilities than
these publicly proven techniques. People who can not understand the
techniques I demonstrated below should not be trading."
"More recently, the 2/10 cycle bottom I
posted here on 2/5 (see below) came in right on schedule. The QLD
(NASDAQ trading ETF) is up 18% in less than a month since 2/10! A
trained monkey could have dragged his mouse crosshairs over to the
10/20/1987 bottom as I demonstrated and arrived at the same result."
2/5/2010
COWAN LOWERS TRAILING STOP TO LOCK IN PROFITS. REVIEW BELOW POSTS
FOR COWAN'S REAL-TIME FORECASTS OF THIS DECLINE
Readers of
Pentagonal Time Cycle Theory understand that the current
decline in the stock market arrived right on time. Review the 9
degree harmonics of Table 6.1. Or, more simply, just enter 45
degrees in
CycleTimer, as shown below, with the start date at "now".
The same result is obtained by setting the cycle start date to the
reopening of the stock exchange in 12/1914, advancing at the rate
of 45 degrees. You will see the cycle originating at the crash low
of 1987 (or 1914) hit again at the 9/1998 low, and now.
1/30/2010
DOUBLE BULL'S EYE! - NASDAQ UPDATE
On December 21 Cowan posted (below)
the two trendlines defining the NASDAQ. He told traders to buy
when the upper 45 degree Gann line was broken followed with
trailing stops. And to short when prices fell below the lower
trendline.
The below chart updates the action since then.
DOUBLE BULL'S EYE!
Immediately after the posting, prices
completed the 4th Elliott Wave and ran up 100 points in 2 weeks.
The top was reached when the two trendlines converged in time, as
is typical of compressing 4th wave triangles. Following Cowan's
second recommendation to short when the lower trendline was broken
at 2280, traders have since accumulated another 140 points in a
little more than one week!
12/21/2009
NASDAQ UPDATE
Since September 2009 The NASDAQ has been compressing between two trend
lines. The upper line is the Gann 45 degree angle on the daily chart
measured from the 50% retracement gap in October 2008. Gaps typically
occur at the exact midpoint of a move. These are the points of maximum
velocity and zero acceleration. It's the same principle of simple
harmonic motion taught in physics. If a theoretical ball is dropped
through a hole drilled thru the Earth it reaches maximum velocity at the
center of the Earth. In a falling market this manifests as a gap. When
prices break out above the 45 degree angle it has overbalanced and
represents an entry point for traders followed with trailing stops. A
break of the lower trend line would similarly represent a good short
entry point
LEARN HOW COWAN CAUGHT THE FALLING KNIFE AT THE
3/6/09 BOTTOM!
The general consensus is that you don't try to "catch a
falling knife". That is, don't try to call a bottom, just trade the
trend. For most traders that is good advice. But Cowan has a proven
track record of doing just that,
calling tops and bottoms as they occur real time with uncanny
accuracy. He did it again on March 5, 2009. Using
CycleTimer software and the
techniques taught in his courses Cowan made his first public market call
in many years. He called a bottom and advised traders to buy
immediately. The post was made here FOUR TRADING HOURS before the actual
bottom and can be seen below in its original form.
Educate yourself so that you can make your
own informed decisions. If you are basing your trading or investing
decisions on anyone other than yourself you are making a huge mistake.
Just look what the so called "experts" were telling their audiences at
the bottom in March.
3/16/2009
COWAN RAISES STOP TO 7250 LOCKING IN 650 PTS PROFIT!
"This is a powerful long-term cycle that I explain in
Chart VIII.I in my book. It has moved exactly 180 degrees from the 1987
crash low. Anybody that has my books and didn't profit from this rally
should kick themselves. I would love to see it pull back and take out my
stop so I can buy lower. But I wouldn't be surprised if this doesn't happen
until 8000 is hit"
3/16/2009
Position closed BY trailing stop at 7250. Trade result IS 650PTS
PROFIT IN 7 TRADING DAYS. WILL BUY BACK LATER TO CONTINUE THIS
POWERFUL UP
CYCLE.
3/13/2009 -
BULL'S-EYE!
TODAY COWAN RAISES STOP TO 7150 LOCKING IN 550 PTS PROFIT!
On 3/5/2009 when the market was below 6600 and still falling the
CNBC talking heads were cowering in fear in their makeup rooms. No
one was calling a bottom. FOUR HOURS before the actual
bottom on 3/6 Cowan made his first public forecast in many years
right here on this public web page, open for all to see, telling
investors to buy now. The original unedited posting is below.
One week later Cowan has raised his stop to 7150 locking in 550
points profit in one week! Re-entry is possible later if the stop
is taken out.
3/5/2009
Recent Cycle Conditions - STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES
It
is Cowan's view that the recent plunge in stock market prices should not
be seen as a source of fear, rather a rare opportunity to buy quality
companies at panic low prices. Investors at these levels will thank
their lucky stars.
Many stock market cycle clusters arrive in March. One studied in the
course is the slow moving Saturn-Uranus, plotted below with
CycleTimer software, moving 180
degrees from the 1987 crash low.
